What else will we blame interest rates for? I believe we're applying it as an explanation for far too many things. It is but one factor of many changing the mechanics of tech since ~2020: AI coding; big tech capex spending on AI; pandemic over-hiring hangover (mostly done); slowing growth of digital ad spending; TCJA section 174 (partly repealled, but still a thing).
That's pretty clearly deceiving. Would expect to run into problems with that kind of approach regardless of the specific payment processor -- everyone has T&C that you must follow.
Problems occur either way due to a lack of regulations on these entities allowing them to dictate acceptable financial transactions regardless of actual legality. Consider the risk matrix:
* You sell legal goods or services and are entirely honest about them to the paypro; if the T&Cs change down the line, your honesty makes you a prime target for having your funds seized and ability to process transactions terminated first, posing an existential threat to your business with no reward for your honesty
* You sell legal goods and services, but don’t volunteer extraneous details about them since that’s not the business of a paypro. Should the T&Cs change, your obscurity buys you time to adapt or seek alternatives before inevitably being caught up in the paypro’s internal surveillance measures.
* You sell legal goods and services, but assume your paypro is hostile from the get go regardless of the T&Cs and hand over the minimal information necessary to process a transaction. You have maximum time to find alternatives should the T&Cs change, because your baseline operations make it that much harder to identify your transactions down the line.
Honesty is inevitably punished while obscurity is rewarded, at least for a time. It’s also worth pointing out the hypocrisy of needling paypro users to follow arbitrary and changing rules of the paypro but allowing said paypros to reject legal transactions for whatever reason they wish or selectively comply with laws because they’re “fintech” and not banks or payment card networks: why should users face more onerous restrictions than the paypro themselves?
Ultimately the solution is the same one we’ve been parroting for years ever since PayPal arbitrarily changed their T&Cs to try booting adult creators off its platform: government regulations barring these entities outright from refusing any legal transaction. It’s part of the playbook at this point for tech companies in light of its success: court adult content creators and communities to grow the platform, then shut them out once there’s money to be made.
Well, fraud prevention requires them to block some transactions that are ostensibly legal right? To the extent that they can’t always tell if a transaction is fraudulent, any effort to fight fraud will block some number of legal transactions. And if it’s something they object to on moral grounds, they can probably always make a case (usually accurately) that the fraud rates are high.
Pandemic-related over-hiring was corrected by end of ~2023, if you look at employment growth rates pre-pandemic. [1] I'm more inclined to believe that it is AI (or, at least, the expectation by CEOs of what AI will be).
So for the Mag7 it's kinda AI, in that they want to maintain margins and invest loads more into capital for AI infrastructure. Those layoffs clearly have AI associated with them.
For lots of other tech, I'm not sure. I do believe that productivity can increase in a bunch of places with AI tooling, but you need to build that tooling first, then monitor and ensure that it continues working. Like, the vast majority of tech companies already outsourced a lot of what AI tooling would/could do, so I'm somewhat sceptical of the rationale (AI is so good we can cut 20% of our staff).
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I would expect the value of a domain purchase + setup handled by an agent is the highest for people that are not very technical. I'd say that a well-engineered agent will do a better job avoiding botching it than your average non-dev.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/01/c...
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