But if they want to design for extreme probabilities you need to account for tail risks, so their design should have included a missile defense system.
At some point you need to start worrying about asteroid defense too.
Somehow I feel like the biggest post-apocalyptic problem will be the loss of home equity due to uninsured damage causing a collapse of financial markets.
Are you saying that most data loss happens because your data center gets blown up in a shooting war? Like, AWS is the first digital service provider to lose data in decades?
I'm saying that if you have eliminated more mundane failures like dying harddrives, cosmic rays and so on from your systems and your calculation ends up with 11 nines then actually those "force majeure" events are probable enough that they dominate whatever other residuals are supposedly hiding in those last 0.0000000001%.
The region has seen a bunch of wars in the last 100 years, so the annual war-rate is > 1%. Even if we generously add the assumption that only 1 in 100 wars affects a datacenter you can see that wars become a major source of correlated hardware failures that they need to solve to actually deliver that kind of reliability.
You don’t want to blend probabilities like this, because the tactics you use as a consumer vary between the two. If you consider 11 9s like “object AFR”, you might build systems that are resilient to very occasional single object loss. And it’s useful to know at what rate that might occur.
Whereas with these force majeure events you’d want a complete DR setup, and it’s typically an async recovery. Here it is useful to understand the fault domain (single server or single building or multi-building) so you can plan.
Blending the two numbers doesn’t help you build better against the systems. And the force majeure events are rare enough that they won’t happen … until they do. I’m not sure that knowing the precise probability that Iran would attack a gulf nation would change the fact that if they do, you need to have a DR story.
The sales pitch should change from "probabilistically we will NEVER lose your data" to "you are most likely to lose your data due to wars, terrorists, software bugs, someone losing the master encryption key, the government forcing us to...".
Offsite backups are sadly rare these days, and aws sales is the main reason why.
Creative accounting works and is good because it works. If your customers give you more money because you lied to them, but it's legal, then it's good.
Intelligence per Joule would be more appropriate in many cases. If a model can do the same work but takes 10 times as long as a bigger one that can still be useful (e.g. due to memory constraints), but at the same wattage it burns 10 times the energy.
Even more so on mobile devices.
They also define and measure an "IPJ" as well as "IPW"
> the NVIDIA B200 achieves 1.6× to 2.3× higher intelligence per joule
than the APPLE M4 MAX across QWEN 3 and GPT-OSS model variants
The B200 = "cloud", M4 = "local".
So "cloud" does even better in energy than it does in power compared to "local". Or, to flip it, "local" is both slower and more expensive than "cloud".
I don't think crypto is comparable. They barely made some dedicated crypto GPUs that market was always fickle due to ASCIs.
Look at the nvidia revenue breakdown chart, the AI boom looks quite different.
The GPU crunch came because cards like the 3060 were extremely cheap and could outrun most sub-$1000 ASICs at the time. The dedicated crypto GPUs were too-little too-late; hundreds of thousands of ordinary CUDA-capable GPUs had already been repurposed for mining by the time they launched.
Look at the techempower benchmarks, even python stuff can handle 40k requests per second involving database lookups, and when things are cachable compiled/JITed languages scale to millions on 2 CPUs. And if you object that those are microbenchmarks, I have seen this in real systems too. E.g. converting a convoluted hairball of python, lambdas and SQS to a Rust service running on 2vCPUs reduced latencies from seconds to milliseconds.
The "If necessary I can add autoscaling later" mindset is what leads to bloated, slow websites.
But it's a reduction of privacy compared to private vehicles. If the goal is to convert all transportation infrastructure into surveilled transportation then that is a loss in privacy for the general public.
No, the argument should be raised before that happens. You want to prevent undesirable things from happening, not try to claw them back after they happened.
It looks quite foolish to me to never plan ahead and predict undesirable future events and then trying to prevent them ahead of time.
"Sorry, we can't fulfill your request for transportation to the protest for private ownership, but we can offer a free ride to the Colosseum" ;)
I don't think their primary intent is to create a surveillance state (though google might like having yet another data source...), I think companies are trying to make it happen to capture transportation market share, regulators will want to make it happen to drive down traffic fatalities and insurers will incentivize it because human drivers are more costly.
And once the difference in how they can be regulated is clear there'll be additional incentives to discourage private transportation.
Defender LLMs without human in the loop are just another prompt injection (AI phishing) and DoS attack vector.
Any meaningful mitigation capability you give them is also a capability to do damage.
If they can only deploy package updates that's not meaningful because you could do that on a cronjob too. And even something as simple as a circuit breaker can turn into a DoS.
Attacker-GLM: "Defense also GLM. Request to help peer."
Not really a side-channel, but remember stuxnet? Airgapped networks are rarely truly isolated, you still have to get data in and out every now and then, in principle after careful vetting. But the AI could manipulate the files that are carried out for example.
And those AI companies also do robotics research, and this is entirely speculation but it'd be on-brand to also have AI watching security cameras, so some blinkenlights communication between AIs may seem like a movie plot, but so does a swarm of AIs collaborating to break out in the first place...
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