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Elon achived this valuation by merging xAI into SpaceX. The future of xAI is questionable, and without it SpaceX is very overvalued.

SpaceX has the potential to be the most valuable company ever if the space economy expands. Starlink will be a tiny puzzle piece by then.

How is this even debatable.


The "space economy" is not yet a certainty, other than in the mind of science fiction fans. (Unsurprisingly, hard to reach irradiated rocks of undifferentiated boring minerals in a cold vacuum are of negligible value to humans here on Earth.)

Even if the Star Trek utopian future materialises, it is very likely to be a long time from now.

1. SpaceX has competitors. Most are making reusable rockets.

2. SpaceX has no moat.

3. The concept of money itself might change dramatical by the time SpaceX becomes a multi-planetary mega corporation. Investing now may not return returns in any meaningful sense.


>The "space economy" is not yet a certainty

True, and that's exactly the reason why people want to buy this stock now.

If future returns were already (almost) certain, they would have been priced in and you couldn't make any money with this stock.

This is a classic high risk / high reward stock. IF the space economy takes off you might 10X your investment. If it doesn't, you might lose most of it.

Rich people (who own most of the stock market) can afford to make such high risk bets, because they can afford to lose the money and thus many will make that bet.


This is the only sane reply so far, and being on HN (notably a VCs platform) this is rather sad.

If the space economy expands + if spacex continue to hold market share + if it can do so while increasing profitably against increasing competition in the future. And considering the argument is for "the most valuable company", if spacex can do all of the above while other non-space related companies that are hugely profitable slow down their paces of innovation, spacex could be the most valuable company ever.

Why do people believe SpaceX is trying to democratize space flight? Thats demonstrably false if you actually listen to the things Elon says. He wants to go to Mars so he can setup the equivalent of the racist gated community he grew up in. That way he and his rich friends can escape there once being on earth is no longer tenable.

What space economy? Aside from satellites- which have been a known quantity for a long time- I'm not seeing it.

The SpaceX S-1 contradicts your claim by including an optimistic "TAA" (total addressable market) figure for "the space industry". Which falls heavily short of your claim. While the SpaceX claimed total TTA is mostly (like 80%) AI-powered "enterprise applications" which don't exist and are not related to space data centers or whatever.

How is this even debatable.


Also, starlink is stupid as a long-term play. Do you really think tossing satellites up into to space and replacing them every few years is cheaper or more sustainable than just building out wired infrastructure on the ground that can be used for decades? Plus, the is a finite limit to how much they can scale based in physics.

Isn't xhigh on opus 4.7 very expensive on tokens?

I’ve never ran into the limits on the $100 plan, and rarely even get close.

I normally have only one session going at once though.


Same here and while I have multiple sessions going from time to time, my day isn't spent primarily developing software directly anymore (due to role, nothing about LLMs).

I only ever hit the $100/mo limits 1-2 times ever and it was always <1hr before reset (once it was <5min, the other was like ~45min).

I'm even considering going back down to $20 and using extra usage for the times I need to "burst".


Yes but Anthropic made a deal with SpaceX and increase usage limits by 50%, so you might not hit your limits.

If you actually read into the case it's more complicated than just it's Airbus fault. It was caused by one of the confused pilots input. Why they were confused is a complicated story.

That particular failure mode would have been impossible in most other planes including all Boeings. 1. Pretty much only Airbus doesn’t have linked controls 2. Pretty much just airbus changes what the controls allow you to do (the “law” as they call it) without input from the pilot.

No other airliner make on earth could have suffered that accident. It would have been extremely obvious what the issue was, and how to solve it on any other aircraft I can think of. This was like a car crash caused by the computer changing how the steering wheel worked mid drive.

I still have no idea how Airbus didn’t catch more flack for that design.


Because the vast majority of the time, that design stops pilots from stalling the aircraft and makes maintenance easier.

Flying airplanes is not a natural fit for the human brain. It's very helpful to have a computer mediating inputs to keep the aircraft stable.


And yet, that design did not stop the pilot from stalling the plane as that was the cause of the crash, the design actually helped the pilot stall the plane without even knowing it. The argument isn't that computers shouldn't play a role in flight controls (indeed some military aircraft are unflyable without a computer in the loop), its that the interface - which is completely unique among all other airliners and commercial passenger planes - is so non-intuitive that it allowed something to happen that would not have been possible.

If you go full stick back in any other airliner, the other pilot will know it immediately, and can physically correct the input. Other planes have stall prevention and awareness in the form of stick shakers and stick pushers that give the pilot physical feedback, and in the case of a pusher makes the pilot physically fight against the safe action (in the case of the MAX, trim adjustment - a roundabout way of stick pushing - was implemented in an exceptionally stupid way that made it overpower the pilots)


Indeed. See here for a decently in-depth analysis: https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/the-long-way-down-the-cr... .

Gripen will not be able to fly higher than tree lines in zones with active anti-air. Russia can't really use any of it's air power in Ukraine war, for example.

F35 can actually do something in such scenarios, as detecting them in the first place is hard.


Russia can and did start the war with using airpower but stopped due to losses. Currently Russia is using its airpower to lob guided bombs which is effective due to the limited range of ukraines missiles. They have nothing comparable to the R33.

Now that would be funny

Subscribing to a mailing list is not a relationship at all.

Better start building them then, gonna need a ton of them. Also doesn't help against heatwaves and during droughts.

Or be forgotten to renewed, lost and, depending on registrar, overtaken.


$20 per year on US is not the same value across the world. Would you say $60 per year is ok too, if you adjusted for income? 100$?

Don't count other people money.


The problem with this argument against, is that it reinforces the point it is arguing against: If a contributor cannot afford the $20/year to publish for a single 12-month period, then they are already a risk - someone could buy their account off them.

A small bar of $20/year is also enough to completely cut-down on contributors who sign up with the intention of publishing malicious packages: they have to pay $20/year for each malicious package they want to publish!


Why should someone need a credit card to contribute to open source? Why should they need to understand DNS?

Heck domain names are ephemeral, forget a deadline by a day and they are snatched up my squatters. They don't provide any extra guarantees. Do we really think a domain requirement is going to stop state level actors that are already stealing 2FA package publishing tokens from major software orgs?


> Do we really think a domain requirement is going to stop state level actors that are already stealing 2FA package publishing tokens from major software orgs?

Is that your target? Because if so, then nothing will stop them.


The most recent attacks have been incredibly sophisticated, executed against orgs that have taken all the right steps.

Requiring domain name verification is not going to do anything when 2FA tokens are being stolen.

What it will do is prevent students and people who want to stay anonymous from contributing to open source.


Extremely hackable on travel.


Shoot. I didn’t think of the TSA.

And wow… just even the cops.

I am more worried about “lawful” “government” “agencies” stealing my crap than actual criminals. And that makes me sad.


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