Far too often people mistake correct guesses with having actual knowledge. If I had a dollar for every time I've heard somebody be "100% certain" of something I'd probably have a lot of money by now, although I don't know for sure.
The aluminum tube claim was pretty obviously bogus. The tubes were narrow in diameter, variably finished (often rough inside), thin walled, and would result in laughably inefficient uranium hexaflouride centrifuges. It just didn’t make any sense to anyone with even a casual understanding of enrichment methods.
They also made perfect sense for missiles/rockets.
The chemical weapon claims were believable. I mean, didn’t we help Iraq manufacture chemical weapons during the Iran/Iraq war? Wasn’t that long-suspected belief later confirmed?
So, yes. I knew at the time, and I said so. I wouldn’t fundamentally have had much of a problem with invading Iraq (one could have that argument), but the justification, timing, and prioritization didn’t really make sense. Watching Powell pitch that goat rodeo was pretty sad.
You might find this a good read about knowing the iraq wmd story was a lie in advance. From someone who predicted it, they explain their reasoning. It's rather convincing.
