I believe it is more less it. People in my circles who pay big money for serious market research papers showed me some in December. There was a very visible trend of people deciding to downgrade for their third or fourth smartphone.
Here is a repost of my post from December:
> Very true, I'd say a downgrade is the trend. I saw like 10+ people deciding to switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models, and even dumbphones for their new phones. People who had ultrabooks, often try Atom based notebooks and sufraces. The key deciding factor for such people, I think, is having a good screen and bearable ergonomics (no microscopic keyboards, or batteries.) The data I have access to tell that the "big screen, small CPU," is the category with the biggest year on year growth. Atom based 14 and 15 inchers are selling like hot cookies.
> As a person working in the industry, I can say that's a very visible trend. People switch their devices more due to battery and physical wear than actual need for more features.
> In that respect, things got very "Japanised" in respect that Japanese cellphone makers are often making new models every season with no real changes other than cosmetic.
> Japan is also the only developed market where "dumbphones" ever saw few upwards trends in last
What about those billion or so people who are just starting to get the taste of consumption culture, having recently risen from poverty? Those quotes seem very Western-centric.
> recently risen from poverty? Those quotes seem very Western-centric.
Thinking of rich people in Asia only as those "nouveau riches" you see glitzing their wealth in London and Dubai is also a very Western-centric view.
You have to remember that "rich foreigner" population you see in the West is less than 1 percent of 1 percent of their home countries' populations, and those usually go apart even from their home country definition of "rich people class."
This is even more true for bigger emerging economies: in India and China, an even bigger portion of relatively rich people is completely content with staying at home, and not seeing a reason-d'etre in immigration to the West or imitating Western lifestyles.
I was recently on assignment in Kazakhstan, where I rented a room in possibly the most expensive coworking space in the country. All people around used mid-tier Taiwanese brands. And those were the people who drived LC200s or G-Wagons.
I had same feeling in Pakistan, where I met people making country's small, budding middle class. All of them successful young professionals, with nice cars, settled down families, and expensive houses in Bahria towns. None of them ever cared of not owning a 20th iPhone or a 5Ghz gaming PC. Most cared more about household appliances, and not having to obsess about specs of stuff they buy. They like practical, simple, well done stuff with some whiff of nice design taste added.
Sure, iPhones etc are luxury products. But the rising demand for low or mid-tier goods is still rising demand, and the production numbers of high-end SKUs are naturally lower and unlikely to affect total numbers that much.
But the global smartphone market is quickly saturating, if it hasn’t already, and that is bound to affect numbers. Smartphone tech is also quickly nearing the flat end of the sigmoid curve, which naturally disincentivizes upgrading.
Yes, but it’s not really the demand for high-end stuff that visibly drives factory activity, because the production numbers are so low compared to more affordable products.
Apple alone is one of the biggest HW manufacturers of n the world and they don’t really have mid/low end offerings. The numbers aren’t as low as you suggest.
> I saw like 10+ people deciding to switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models
Mid-range phones now cost as much as previous "superphones". The iPhone launched at $499($615 after inflation) and the latest iPhone XS launched at $999.
Here is a repost of my post from December:
> Very true, I'd say a downgrade is the trend. I saw like 10+ people deciding to switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models, and even dumbphones for their new phones. People who had ultrabooks, often try Atom based notebooks and sufraces. The key deciding factor for such people, I think, is having a good screen and bearable ergonomics (no microscopic keyboards, or batteries.) The data I have access to tell that the "big screen, small CPU," is the category with the biggest year on year growth. Atom based 14 and 15 inchers are selling like hot cookies.
> As a person working in the industry, I can say that's a very visible trend. People switch their devices more due to battery and physical wear than actual need for more features.
> In that respect, things got very "Japanised" in respect that Japanese cellphone makers are often making new models every season with no real changes other than cosmetic.
> Japan is also the only developed market where "dumbphones" ever saw few upwards trends in last