Exactly one of the following is true:

(1) The probability of success is equal whether you start a startup in a good or a bad economy.

(2) The probability of success is greater if you start a startup in a good economy.

(3) The probability of success is greater if you start a startup in a bad economy.

This latest essay is a bit ambiguous as to whether it's defending (1), (3), or (2)-but-not-by-much. Which is it?