I have come to the conclusion that coding is a solved problem. Most normal software building is now a closed-loop problem. Codex and similar agents can already take a clear task, write the code, test it, see what failed, fix it, and iterate.
A person who does not know how software works will still struggle. They may not know what to ask, what is wrong, or how to tell whether the result is good.
But for a decent engineer who has already built real systems, I think the situation is very different. They can move across domains, ask the right questions, inspect what the agent is doing, and keep pushing until the system works.
They may take more steps than a senior engineer who already knows that domain well, but I do not think that gap is very large anymore. The important part seems to be knowing what to ask, what to check, and what you are actually trying to build.
I have been an engineer for years. At this point, I do not see much value in sitting alone and building more projects just to prove that I can build software.
That has also changed how I look at the past eight months. I spent that time building, learning, and trying to get better. Looking back now, much of it feels like time spent getting better at a problem that has already been solved.
And so I have come to a harsher conclusion: I wasted a lot of that time. What I have done feels bad, and I do not see what is left for me to do in this direction.
Maybe I am completely wrong. If I am, please feel free to roast this argument. I would genuinely like to know where the reasoning breaks.
There is one massive thing positive about being independent: your code stays unique to you. If any AI is training off you (especially by stealth,) then it is making your solutions commodities, right?
I am building an RSS reader that I like a lot. But anyone that builds one after me, and especially if they use the AIs that I used, I presume will get there so much more quickly. If I have shared freely with the LLM, then from there it's open to anyone indirectly whether it is OSS or not. Also, the reader is an HTML page - as soon as it is public, anyone can get it.
So the playing field is being leveled for software, it's worthwhile thinking about new uses for software. For example, ways to tip writers and solving the ever present "micropayments" conundrum. Things can atrophy sure unless you look for new problems, new frictions and ways to improve life. Local-first Fediverse is a huge opportunity and enabling safe whistle-blowing while minimizing noise. Enable bravery, but not too much.